Documentan efectos de cambio climático en Michoacán

Enviado por verdebandera el Sáb, 04/02/2012 - 11:20.

Con base en 56 estaciones meteorológicas distribuidas en Michoacán, el Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera de la UNAM, estimó diversos escenarios de cambio climático para Michoacán.

Por Ana Claudia Nepote *

Investigadores de la Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), presentaron ante autoridades del Gobierno del Estado los últimos resultados de trabajos realizados como parte de la etapa diagnóstica de la “Estrategia de Sustentabilidad Ambiental y Cambio Climático del Estado de Michoacán”. En los últimos años se ha incrementado la frecuencia de ciclones, sin embargo, se espera que este año posiblemente sea el más seco.

Con base en 56 estaciones meteorológicas distribuidas en el Estado de Michoacán, el equipo de trabajo encabezado por la doctora Cecilia Conde, del Centro de Ciencias de la Atmósfera de la UNAM, realizó un estudio histórico climático y estimó diversos escenarios de cambio climático para Michoacán. Se identificaron cuatro regiones, cuyos extremos son las tierras frías y húmedas en la región de la meseta Purépecha, en contraste con las tierras calientes y secas en la Depresión del río Balsas. En ésta última zona, el clima se hará aún más extremo en las próximas décadas, por lo que se requerirán acciones de planeación regional que ayuden a que los pobladores de dicha región se adapten a las nuevas condiciones.

Por otro lado, los sectores que aportan mayores emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en Michoacán son aquellos que realizan actividades asociadas al cambio de uso de suelo y la silvicultura, con un aporte del 47%, y el sector energético con 33%, señaló el doctor Felpe García Oliva, del Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas de la UNAM campus Morelia.

México es el único país no Anexo 1 del Protocolo de Kioto que ha presentado hasta la fecha, cuatro inventarios de Gases de Efecto Invernadero en Ciudad de México, Nuevo León, Veracruz y ahora Michoacán. Según datos del 2006 a nivel nacional, el sector que más aportaba a la emisión de gases de efecto invernadero a nivel nacional era el sector energético con un 60%, seguido de los desechos con 14% y el cambio de uso de suelo con 10%.

Para el caso particular de Michoacán, el Inventario de Gases de Efecto Invernadero identificó las actividades asociadas al cambio de uso de suelo asociado a la deforestación, el abandono de áreas y la transformación de bosques templados a zonas de monocultivos – por mencionar algunos- como las que mayor aportan al proceso de cambio climático. Por ejemplo, se estimó una tasa de deforestación de 23 mil 600 hectáreas por año en el 2000 y cinco años después, la cifra se incrementó en más de un 40% al pasar a 55 mil 400 hectáreas, principalmente en los bosques templados de Michoacán. Por lo tanto, se espera que con esta información se oriente el diseño de políticas públicas en estos sectores.

Los resultados que ahora se tienen con el inventario de emisiones contribuyen a definir el nivel base de las emisiones actuales por sector que propuso el Panel Intergubernamental de Cambio Climático, a realizar estudios comparables con los inventarios estatales, federales o internacionales y a establecer un sistema de monitoreo continuo de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero en el Estado.

El Gobierno del Estado a través de la Secretaría de Urbanismo y Medio Ambiente, realizó gestiones para financiar diversos estudios que conforman la etapa diagnóstica de la Estrategia de Cambio Climático en el Estado, un instrumento de política pública que definirá las acciones a implementar para enfrentar los efectos de este problema y atender a los sectores más vulnerables.

*Centro de Investigaciones en Ecosistemas de la UNAM.

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Las direcciones de las páginas web y las de correo se convierten en enlaces automáticamente.
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Documentan efectos de cambio climático en Michoacán

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